公募2026年投资策略趋于明朗： 盈利接棒估值 科技与周期共舞

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 investment strategy reports from multiple public fund companies indicate a consensus that A-shares will experience a key transition from "valuation expansion" to "profit recovery," with market trends expected to continue amid profit restoration [1][9]. Investment Logic: Profit as Core Driver - "Profit recovery" is identified as the central theme in the public funds' 2026 investment strategy reports, with a shift in market driving logic from valuation expansion in 2025 to profit improvement in 2026 [2]. - Institutions like Ping An Fund and China Merchants Fund suggest that market growth in 2026 will be more driven by corporate profits and industry catalysts, transitioning from a rapid valuation increase to a slower, profit-supported market [2]. - Historical data indicates that A-shares have not experienced three consecutive years of valuation expansion, making corporate profit performance crucial for index direction in 2026 [2][3]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to be relatively loose, with a moderate recovery in the economy and a continued trend of household savings moving into equity assets [2][3]. Investment Themes: Technology and Cyclical Recovery - Technology and cyclical sectors are highlighted as the main investment themes, with AI technology and cyclical recovery being the focal points [4][5]. - Ping An Fund emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and cyclical supply-demand rebalancing, particularly in AI hardware and domestic semiconductor investments [4]. - China Merchants Fund also focuses on AI technology and cyclical real estate, noting that the global AI industry is still in a "big infrastructure era" with long-term opportunities [4][5]. - Other sectors such as consumption and pharmaceuticals are mentioned for their potential valuation recovery, driven by macroeconomic improvements and rising consumer income [5][6]. Investment Philosophy: Increased Focus on Asset Allocation - The 2026 investment strategy reports show a notable increase in discussions around asset allocation, with "fixed income plus" products gaining attention [7]. - Long-term funds are expected to continue entering the market, driven by low interest rates and the performance of the equity market [7]. - Multi-asset strategies and global asset allocation are also gaining traction, with firms like Ping An Fund introducing innovative "FOF fixed income plus" products to diversify risk [8]. - The overseas market is recognized as an important area for asset allocation in 2026, with optimism towards Hong Kong stocks and attention to U.S., European, and Japanese markets [8].