Core Viewpoint - Multiple public fund companies have released their investment strategy reports for 2026, indicating a consensus that the A-share market is expected to transition from "valuation expansion" to "profit recovery," with market trends likely to continue amid profit restoration [1][6] Investment Logic: Profit as Core Driver - "Profit recovery" is identified as the central theme in the 2026 investment strategy reports, with institutions suggesting that the driving logic for the equity market will shift from valuation expansion in 2025 to profit improvement in 2026 [1][2] - The market is anticipated to transition from a "rapid and urgent" valuation-driven rally to a "slow and steady" profit-supported rally, as companies' earnings are expected to recover [1][2] - Historical data indicates that A-shares have not experienced three consecutive years of valuation expansion, suggesting that corporate earnings will directly influence index direction in 2026 [1] Investment Themes: Focus on Technology and Cycles - Technology and cyclical sectors are highlighted as the two main investment themes, with AI being a focal point in the technology sector and chemicals and precious metals being favored in the cyclical sector [2][3] - The technology sector is expected to benefit from rapid growth in global AI capital expenditure, while the cyclical sector is anticipated to see improvements due to favorable supply-demand dynamics [2][3] Additional Investment Opportunities - Some institutions also mention potential valuation recovery in the consumer and pharmaceutical sectors, driven by macroeconomic recovery and rising consumer income [4] - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to benefit from improved policy environments and breakthroughs in innovative drug development [4] Investment Philosophy: Increased Focus on Asset Allocation - The 2026 investment strategy reports show a notable increase in discussions around asset allocation, with "fixed income plus" products gaining attention [4][5] - The "fixed income plus" products are expected to thrive in a favorable environment, driven by demand for alternatives following the exit of guaranteed wealth management products and the low-interest-rate environment [5] - Institutions are optimistic about the growth of "fixed income plus" products, which can dynamically adjust asset allocation to capture market opportunities while controlling drawdowns [5] Global Investment Perspectives - There is a growing interest in overseas asset allocation, with optimism regarding the Hong Kong stock market and its potential for profit growth, particularly in the internet, consumer, and technology sectors [5][6] - The "barbell strategy" is suggested for overseas investments, focusing on U.S. tech stocks and dividend-paying assets in Hong Kong as a stabilizing investment [6]
盈利接棒估值 科技与周期共舞
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2026-01-11 20:49