原油周报：风险溢价激增，原油宽幅震荡

Market Overview - Recent oil prices have shown significant volatility, with the market moving away from fundamental trading towards geopolitical risk trading [5][40] - Oil prices experienced a sharp decline following U.S. President Trump's announcement regarding the release of Venezuelan oil, but rebounded as the market assessed the impracticality of rapid Venezuelan production increases and ongoing conflicts between Iran and Israel [5][40] - As of December 9, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $63.34 per barrel, up $1.58 (2.56%) from the previous week; WTI crude futures settled at $59.12 per barrel, up $0.80 (1.37%); Dubai crude futures settled at $61.92 per barrel, up $1.54 (2.55%) [5][40][44] EIA Data Analysis - The EIA reported a decrease in crude oil inventories by 3.832 million barrels, primarily due to increased crude demand and refinery operations resuming after maintenance [6][41] - However, downstream refined oil products saw unexpected inventory builds, with gasoline inventories increasing by 7.702 million barrels, attributed to relaxed supply and weak demand [6][41] - January is typically a period of adjustment for transportation activities, with a decrease in freight volumes and capacity, leading to stable transportation conditions despite winter weather challenges [6][29] Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, along with potential internal issues in Iran, continues to be a significant factor influencing oil prices and market sentiment [5][40][44] - The market is expected to remain focused on geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran and Israel, as well as the implications of U.S. foreign policy [5][40][44] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global oil supply-demand balance remains in a state of surplus, with the EIA indicating an average surplus of 2.74 million barrels per day expected in the first quarter [21][56] - U.S. crude oil production decreased by 16,000 barrels per day to 1,381.1 million barrels per day, yet remains at historical highs [58] - Refinery utilization rates are stable at 94.70%, indicating no significant disruptions in supply [60] Terminal Demand Insights - U.S. terminal demand for oil products is stabilizing, but downstream demand remains sluggish, with gasoline demand showing slight declines [28][63] - The seasonal adjustment in transportation activities is evident, with freight volumes decreasing as the market adjusts post-peak season [29][64]