智通财经网·2026-01-11 23:21Core Viewpoint - The strategy of heavily investing in major U.S. tech stocks has underperformed since 2025, with many companies lagging behind the S&P 500 index for the first time since the Fed began raising interest rates in 2022 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The "Seven Giants" index rose by 25% in 2025, outperforming the S&P 500's 16% increase, but this growth was primarily driven by Google and Nvidia [1] - The Seven Giants index only increased by 0.5% at the beginning of 2026, while the S&P 500 rose by 1.8% [1] - The earnings growth for the Seven Giants is projected to be around 18% in 2026, the slowest since 2022, compared to a 13% expected growth for the other 493 S&P 500 constituents [5] Group 2: Individual Company Insights Nvidia - Nvidia, a leading AI chip manufacturer, faces increased competition and concerns about the sustainability of spending from its largest customers [5] - Despite a 1165% increase since the end of 2022, Nvidia's stock has dropped 11% since reaching an all-time high on October 29, 2025 [5] - Analysts remain optimistic, with 76 out of 82 covering analysts rating it as a "buy," indicating a potential 39% upside in the next 12 months [6] Microsoft - Microsoft is expected to spend nearly $100 billion in capital expenditures for the fiscal year ending June 2026, with projections rising to $116 billion for the next fiscal year [9] - The company has struggled to convince customers to pay for integrated AI features, leading to investor concerns about the return on its significant investments [10] Apple - Apple has taken a conservative approach to AI, resulting in a nearly 20% stock price drop by early August 2025, but later rebounded by 34% by the end of the year [11] - The company is expected to achieve a 9% revenue growth in the fiscal year ending September 2026, the fastest since 2021 [11] Google - Google has emerged as a leader in AI, with its Gemini AI model receiving positive reviews and its self-developed TPU seen as a key revenue growth driver [12] - The stock price increased over 65% in 2025, but analysts predict only a 3.9% increase in 2026 [12] Amazon - Amazon was the worst performer among the Seven Giants in 2025 but has seen a strong rebound in early 2026, driven by its AWS cloud computing business [13] - The company is expected to benefit from efficiency improvements in warehousing and logistics, potentially leading to significant stock price growth [13] Meta - Meta's significant investments in AI have raised investor skepticism, particularly after increasing its capital expenditure forecast to $72 billion for 2025 and expecting a "substantial increase" in 2026 [14] - The stock saw a 35% increase earlier in 2025 but has since declined by 17% [14] Tesla - Tesla's stock price was the lowest among the Seven Giants in the first half of 2025 but surged over 40% in the second half as the focus shifted to autonomous vehicles and robotics [15] - Analysts predict a 12% revenue growth for Tesla in 2026, following a projected 3% decline in 2025 [15]