Dan Loeb: Positioning His Portfolio for 2026

Core Insights - Third Point LLC's latest 13F filing reveals Dan Loeb's strategic positioning amid changing macro conditions, highlighting a cautious yet opportunistic investment approach [1][2] Portfolio Adjustments - Microsoft (MSFT) was significantly increased by 700,000 shares, totaling a $569.7 million position, representing 6.34% of the portfolio, reflecting confidence in its long-term earnings potential driven by AI and cloud services [3][4][5] - Norfolk Southern (NSC) was established as a new holding with 1.65 million shares valued at $495.7 million, or 5.51% of the portfolio, indicating a belief in recovery from operational challenges [6][7] - A large put position in SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was created, amounting to $582.9 million notional, or 6.48% of the portfolio, serving as a hedge against market risks rather than a directional bet [8][9] Position Trims - PG&E Corp (PCG) saw a reduction of 1 million shares, maintaining a $755.5 million position, or 8.40% of the portfolio, reflecting position-sizing discipline rather than a change in investment thesis [10][11] - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) was trimmed by 330,000 shares, resulting in a $307.2 million position, or 3.42% of the portfolio, indicating caution regarding geopolitical risks and cyclical normalization [12][13] - Capital One Financial (COF) was reduced by 419,204 shares, totaling a $294.4 million position, or 3.28% of the portfolio, as the firm de-risked exposure to unsecured consumer lending [14] - CRH plc (CRH) was trimmed by 425,000 shares, maintaining a $259.6 million position, or 2.89% of the portfolio, reflecting valuation discipline after strong performance [15] Strategic Overview - Third Point is balancing offensive and defensive strategies, with aggressive investments in high-quality opportunities alongside macro caution [16] - The use of hedging strategies indicates a focus on managing downside risk while maintaining flexibility [17] - The trimming of cyclical positions suggests a more cautious approach to economically sensitive sectors [18] - High concentration in top positions reflects a belief in active risk-taking as a driver of alpha [19] - The filing demonstrates Third Point's agility in adapting to market conditions and leveraging fundamental strengths [20]