【菜系周报】加拿大总理访华，同时对中国部分商品征税

Group 1 - The core focus of the upcoming week will be on the potential economic and trade breakthroughs during Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China, as well as the successful processing of Australian canola seeds [2][3][16] - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's visit from January 13 to 17, 2026, aims to enhance cooperation in trade, energy, agriculture, and international security, marking the first visit by a Canadian Prime Minister to China since 2017 [3][17] - The market is reacting positively to the potential easing of trade tensions between China and Canada, with Canadian ICE canola contracts rising, while the domestic market in China remains relatively weak [3][17] Group 2 - Canada has recently imposed trade restrictions on certain Chinese products, including cast iron sewage pipes and thermal paper, indicating ongoing trade tensions [4][18] - The upcoming discussions on canola seeds and electric vehicles between China and Canada remain uncertain, with the potential for further trade restrictions impacting negotiations [4][20] - The complexity of the topics to be discussed during the Prime Minister's visit suggests that fluctuations in trade relations are likely, leading to increased market volatility [6][20] Group 3 - The market is closely monitoring the processing of Australian canola seeds, with current non-GMO CNF prices for Australian canola recovering to $570-$580 per ton, while Canadian canola is around $530 per ton [9][23] - The ability to anchor valuations based on Australian canola will depend on the successful processing of these seeds, with potential impacts from Dubai and Russian pricing if expectations are not met [9][23] - The first quarter will see a focus on the recovery of canola processing, with expectations that supply may not be sufficient before the Chinese New Year and contract deliveries [11][25] Group 4 - The overall valuation pressure on canola oil and meal is influenced by uncertainties in trade relations, with no significant rebound drivers currently in place [13][27] - If trade discussions do not meet expectations, there remains a possibility for weekly rebounds, particularly with the upcoming soybean auctions likely to exert more pressure on canola meal than on oil [13][27]