智通财经网·2026-01-11 23:35Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong IPO market will not lead to a bear market; instead, increased demand for the Hong Kong dollar may push the currency to its strong-side guarantee, prompting the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to release liquidity in the interbank market, thereby lowering HIBOR rates and boosting the bull market in Hong Kong stocks [1][10] - In 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is expected to have 117 IPOs raising a total of HKD 285.9 billion, regaining the top position globally after four years. The market anticipates that the IPO fundraising scale in 2026 will continue to be strong, potentially exceeding HKD 300 billion [2][6] - The impact of IPO peaks and fundraising peaks on the Hong Kong stock market is not absolute; historically, these peaks have not reversed the market trend, as seen in previous years like 2010, 2014-2015, 2017, 2020, and 2025 [6][10] Group 2 - The true impact of IPOs on the Hong Kong market may be observed during the six-month lock-up period for cornerstone investors post-listing, with notable declines in the market often coinciding with these unlock periods [16] - However, in 2025, the unlocking of shares did not lead to a market downturn, as the ability for cornerstone investors to sell did not equate to a necessity to sell, allowing new buying power from index funds and foreign investments to offset any selling pressure [16] - There may be a new wave of lock-up share unlocks for mid to large-cap companies (market capitalization over HKD 30 billion) in March and September 2026 [6][16] Group 3 - The short-term stock price increase after inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect is not universally applicable, with historical data showing a low probability of price increases across the full sample [23] - For the Hang Seng Tech Index, institutional investors' presence leads to more accurate predictions regarding index adjustments, with stock prices typically reacting about 30 days before the execution date of adjustments [24] - Following the completion of index adjustments, stock prices usually experience a decline, which typically stabilizes within a week [24]