迟福林：促进供给和需求良性互动的实践逻辑与实现路径

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of building a strong domestic market in China, focusing on "demand-led, consumption-driven, and endogenous growth" as a strategic choice to adapt to economic changes and enhance resilience against international challenges [1]. Group 1: Domestic Market Development - Building a strong domestic market is crucial for achieving high-quality development and requires addressing structural contradictions between consumption and investment [1][3]. - The current economic situation shows a significant imbalance characterized by strong supply and weak demand, particularly in consumer spending [3]. - The transformation of "Chinese manufacturing" and "Chinese consumption" is essential for unlocking the potential of the vast domestic market, with manufacturing accounting for nearly 30% of global output by 2024 [2]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - China's retail sales are projected to reach 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, which is 2.4 times that of 2012, indicating rapid growth in consumer spending [2]. - The contribution of final consumption to economic growth is expected to be 44.5% in 2024, showing a decline compared to 2023, highlighting the need to boost consumer spending [3]. - The service consumption sector is becoming a key driver of economic growth, with its share of total consumption rising from 39.7% in 2013 to 46.1% in 2024 [5]. Group 3: Service Consumption Potential - Enhancing service consumption is vital for achieving a dynamic balance between supply and demand, with a potential increase in consumer spending of approximately 800 billion yuan for every 1% rise in the consumption rate [4]. - By 2030, service consumption is expected to exceed 50% of total consumption, contributing an additional 40 trillion yuan to consumer demand [6]. - The shift towards comprehensive, international, and intelligent service consumption is anticipated to drive innovation and transformation in various industries, including healthcare and tourism [6][7]. Group 4: Structural Reforms - Structural reforms are necessary to resolve the contradictions between investment and consumption, with a focus on "investing in people" to stimulate demand [9]. - Urbanization and equalization of basic public services are critical to addressing the lag in urbanization compared to industrialization, which could significantly boost consumer spending [10]. - The government plays a crucial role in facilitating economic transformation by optimizing the relationship between effective markets and proactive government policies [11].