就业数据支撑降息信心，Pimco等巨头押注：2026短债将持续跑赢长债

Core Viewpoint - Bond investors see continued profit potential in the 2026 Federal Reserve policy path and the overall Treasury market, supported by a recent employment report indicating lower-than-expected job growth, which reinforces expectations for further Fed rate cuts to support the economy [1] Group 1: Employment Report and Market Reactions - The recent employment report showed that new job additions were below market expectations, bolstering the market's belief in further Fed rate cuts [1] - The report also confirmed the market's confidence in the strategy of "short-term bonds outperforming long-term bonds," leading to an expansion of the yield spread between these two bond maturities [1] - The yield difference between 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has widened to its largest level in nearly nine months [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Market Sentiment - The "steepening trade" strategy has been popular among bond investors, with firms like Pimco actively participating [1] - Capital Group's fixed income manager, Pramod Athruri, expressed optimism about the steepening trade's potential over the next 12 to 24 months, citing various scenarios that could yield significant returns [3] - Despite a recent narrowing of the yield spread due to a drop in the unemployment rate, U.S. bond managers still favor this strategy overall [4][5] Group 3: Future Expectations and Economic Indicators - Market focus is shifting to the upcoming December Consumer Price Index report, which is expected to show persistent inflation, providing justification for the Fed to maintain its current stance [3] - The Fed has cut rates three times since September of last year, with traders anticipating another cut in mid-2026 and a fourth in the fourth quarter [3] - Societe Generale's U.S. rates strategist, Subadra Rajappa, noted that the momentum for the steepening trade is waning, suggesting fewer rate cuts due to a stable labor market and persistent inflation [3] Group 4: Timing and Market Dynamics - Timing is crucial, as highlighted by Vanguard's senior portfolio manager, Brian Quigley, who maintains a neutral outlook on rates but sees steepening as the only favorable trade since the beginning of the year [6] - The upcoming auction of $61 billion in 10-year and 30-year Treasuries may put pressure on these maturities [6] - Athruri from Capital Group is positioning for a steepening curve by overweighting short-term bonds, anticipating that a broad "risk-off" sentiment could lead to greater rate cuts by the Fed [6] Group 5: Legal and Fiscal Considerations - Traders are also monitoring the Supreme Court's potential ruling on challenges to President Trump's tariff orders, which could impact Treasury yields depending on the outcome [3][7] - Concerns about rising deficits and the implications for Treasury auctions are heightened if tariffs are struck down, complicating the narrative around inflation and yield curves [7] - Investors are particularly attentive to the potential nomination of a new Fed chair by Trump, who may favor quicker rate cuts, especially if inflation shows signs of cooling [7]