中信证券：依旧预计美联储将在1月议息会议暂停降息 鲍威尔任期内或还有一次降息

Core Viewpoint - The employment report for December 2025 indicates that both the non-farm payroll additions and the unemployment rate in the U.S. were below expectations, reflecting a balanced state in the job market after six years of adjustment since the pandemic [1] Employment Market Analysis - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, with new non-farm jobs primarily concentrated in specific service sectors [1] - The total non-farm employment additions for the year 2025 were 584,000, significantly lower than the levels seen in 2023 and 2024 [1] - The current job market is characterized by "low hiring + low layoffs," suggesting a stable employment environment [1] Economic Advisory Insights - Due to unconventional data disclosures by Trump, there is a recommendation to closely monitor news and research from the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) [1] Interest Rate Expectations - The expectation remains that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate cuts during the January meeting, with a possibility of one more rate cut during Powell's term [1]