2026年经济多维度向好可期

Core Viewpoint - The China Macro Economic Forum (CMF) predicts a gradual warming of the economy in 2026, with GDP growth expected to rebound across multiple dimensions, including price levels and investment [1] Economic Growth - The report forecasts that the actual GDP growth will be in the range of 4.5% to 5% for the year, approaching the upper limit [1] - Both actual and nominal GDP growth rates are expected to rise, with nominal growth showing a more significant rebound [1] Price Levels - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to gradually recover to a moderate range, while the decline in Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to narrow, alleviating negative effects related to prices [1] Consumption Sector - The consumption market is projected to operate steadily in 2026, with a recovery in dining consumption and the emergence of new consumption formats driven by AI and robotics [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow at around 4% for the year [1] Investment Sector - Investment is expected to stabilize, with infrastructure investment recovering first and a significant reduction in the decline of real estate investment [1] - There will be a notable structural optimization combining "investment in physical assets" and "investment in human capital" such as education and healthcare [1] Policy Recommendations - Experts suggest that stabilizing prices should be a core policy focus in 2026, aiming to bring CPI closer to a target of 2% while controlling real estate supply to avoid negative impacts on consumption and investment [2] - The long-term trend of the RMB appreciating is seen as a necessary step for China to advance towards a high-income country, with policies needing to accommodate this trend [2] - A balance between "technological self-reliance" and "improving people's livelihoods" is emphasized, advocating for breakthroughs in AI and advanced manufacturing while enhancing social security measures [2]