中金：2026年A股大概率优于港股 跟随信用扩张方向布局

Group 1 - The core view is that A-shares are expected to outperform Hong Kong stocks in 2026 due to relative advantages in fundamentals and liquidity, while Hong Kong stocks still hold structural appeal [1][34] - A-shares are projected to have an overall profit growth rate of approximately 4%-5% in 2026, compared to about 3% for Hong Kong stocks, driven by differences in sector composition [34][42] - Key sectors for A-shares include technology hardware, manufacturing, and cyclical industries, while Hong Kong stocks are characterized by dividend, internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption sectors, which are less favored in the current market [1][42] Group 2 - The strong performance of A-shares at the beginning of the year is attributed to excess liquidity chasing scarce return assets, rather than significant changes in macro fundamentals [2][12] - The market structure has shown that small-cap stocks have significantly outperformed large-cap stocks, continuing the trend from 2025 [2][3] - A-shares have seen record high margin trading balances and daily trading volumes, indicating strong investor interest and liquidity [8][9] Group 3 - Hong Kong stocks have lagged due to a lack of attractive structural opportunities and weaker liquidity, reflecting a deteriorating fundamental outlook [12][15] - The absence of significant foreign capital inflows and the impact of high U.S. Treasury yields have constrained Hong Kong's liquidity environment [17][20] - The IPO market in Hong Kong remains active, with a total of 2,858 million HKD raised in 2025, but the demand for capital is expected to increase further in 2026 [23][24] Group 4 - The historical cross-year effect shows that A-shares tend to perform better than Hong Kong stocks during the spring season, with A-shares averaging a 4.6% increase compared to 0.5% for Hong Kong stocks over the past 20 years [27][28] - The analysis indicates that A-shares have a higher probability of positive returns during the spring season, particularly in sectors like technology and consumer goods [28][29] Group 5 - The liquidity environment for A-shares is expected to benefit from domestic micro liquidity changes, while Hong Kong stocks face multiple constraints [40][41] - The structural characteristics of Hong Kong stocks, such as dividends and innovative sectors, provide unique investment opportunities that are not easily replicated in A-shares [42][46] - The investment strategy should focus on sectors aligned with credit expansion, including AI, dividends, cyclical, and consumption sectors, with A-shares generally having an advantage in technology and cyclical sectors [45][46]