高盛：预计美联储2026年6月和9月各降息25个基点

Economic Growth Forecast - Goldman Sachs projects that the US GDP growth rate will reach 2.8% by 2026, which is more optimistic than the forecasts from economists surveyed by Bloomberg [1] Inflation and Consumer Prices - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate is expected to reach 2.1% in December, while the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to slow to 2% [1] Labor Market and Employment - The unemployment rate is expected to stabilize at 4.5%, but there is a risk of "no job growth" due to companies utilizing artificial intelligence to reduce labor costs [1] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in June and September 2026 to address uncertainties in the labor market [1] Consumer Spending and Business Investment - Tax cuts, real wage growth, and increased wealth will continue to support consumer spending, while business investment is projected to be the strongest component of GDP in 2026, benefiting from loose financial conditions, reduced policy uncertainty, and tax incentives [1] Political Landscape - In the upcoming midterm elections, the cost of living is expected to be a major political issue, leading the White House to avoid further significant tariff increases [1]