2026年硫磺涨势延续 荣盛石化产能TOP3迎高景气红利

Core Viewpoint - The sulfur market is experiencing a strong upward trend in prices due to tightening supply and demand dynamics, with significant price increases reported from major exporting countries in the Middle East [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The sulfur supply-demand balance in China for 2026 is expected to be tight, with a structural gap continuing to widen, leading to a "tight balance" as the main theme for the year [2]. - Only two new or expanded sulfur production facilities are planned for 2026, adding a total capacity of 500,000 tons per year, with uneven production schedules [2]. - Downstream demand is projected to grow significantly, with 15 new facilities planned, resulting in an additional sulfur consumption capacity of approximately 3.29 million tons per year [2][3]. Price Trends - The latest sulfur prices from Qatar and the UAE for January 2026 are reported at $517 and $520 per ton, respectively, reflecting increases of $22 and $25 per ton from the previous month [1]. - The domestic sulfur price is expected to rise, with predictions that it could exceed 5,000 yuan per ton and potentially reach 6,000 yuan per ton in optimistic scenarios [5]. Market Structure - The sulfur industry in China is highly concentrated, with major players like Sinopec, PetroChina, and Rongsheng Petrochemical dominating the market, collectively holding over 70% of the total production capacity [4]. - The total sulfur production capacity in China has reached approximately 16.79 million tons, but future capacity expansion is limited due to government policies on crude oil processing [4]. Profitability Outlook - The increase in sulfur prices is expected to significantly enhance profits for leading companies, with estimates suggesting that a price increase of 100 yuan per ton could yield billions in profit for top firms [5]. - Rongsheng Petrochemical, with its substantial production capacity and low-cost structure, is projected to achieve a gross profit of around 3.4 billion yuan from its sulfur business [5].