光伏行业迎来市场、政策双重变局，行业估值体系面临重构

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is undergoing a significant policy shift with the complete removal of export VAT rebates for solar products, indicating a departure from previous fiscal support and a potential restructuring of the industry's valuation system [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The Chinese government plans to eliminate export subsidies for solar panels and batteries in the coming months to curb excessive domestic competition and strengthen China's position in the global market [1]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) has praised this move, suggesting it may facilitate a "reasonable recovery" in overseas markets and reduce trade friction risks while alleviating government financial pressure [4]. Group 2: Market Position - According to the International Energy Agency, China's market shares in global solar photovoltaic chip, battery, and silicon production are projected to be 78%, 87%, and 97% respectively by 2024 [4]. - A report from SNE Research indicates that by October 2025, China will control six of the top ten battery manufacturers globally, accounting for 68.9% of the market [4]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that given China's dominant market position, there is no need for tax rebate programs to maintain the competitiveness of these products, as the country can leverage additional revenue sources [4].