机构：把握新能源车结构行情 同时保持审慎

Core Viewpoint - The new energy passenger vehicle market is expected to see a retail increase in 2025, with a total of 1.337 million units sold in December, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.6% and a month-on-month growth of 1.2% [1] - Cumulative retail sales for the entire year of 2025 are projected to reach 12.809 million units, marking a growth of 17.6% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The adjustment of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy in 2026 is anticipated to stimulate consumer purchases before the end of 2025, alongside year-end sales pushes from automakers and pre-holiday inventory demands [1] - There is a potential risk of a return to seasonal downturns in the first quarter of 2026 following concentrated sales in the fourth quarter of 2025, suggesting a need for cautious investment strategies [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand - On the supply side, continuous introduction of new products by battery and main engine manufacturers is positively impacting demand, supported by ongoing policy initiatives [1] - The industry has experienced significant price declines, leading to reduced capital expenditures and an improving supply-demand balance, with industry associations and companies actively optimizing capacity and supply to ensure price stability for profitability [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Overall, the new energy vehicle industry chain is currently at a price bottom, with prices likely to rise but difficult to fall, indicating strong demand resilience [1] - The recent adjustments present good opportunities for investment, as core companies within the industry chain are valued at historically low levels, making them attractive for investors [1]