中金：港股和A股谁“错”了？

Group 1 - The core driver of the A-share market's strong performance at the beginning of 2026 is the "excess liquidity" chasing "scarce return assets," rather than significant changes in the macroeconomic fundamentals [2][11] - The A-share market has shown a clear structural preference for sectors like commercial aerospace, non-ferrous metals, and brain-computer interfaces, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks [2][3] - The A-share market's gains have primarily been driven by valuation expansion, while traditional consumer stocks have lagged behind due to their closer correlation with domestic demand fundamentals [2][5] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market has underperformed due to a lack of attractive structural opportunities and a weaker funding environment, reflecting a deteriorating fundamental backdrop [10][13] - The absence of significant inflows from southbound capital has been noted, with December's average daily inflow dropping to 10.9 million HKD, significantly lower than the 60 million HKD average for the entire year [18][20] - The Hong Kong IPO market remains active, with a total of 2,858 million HKD raised in 2025, but the overall market performance has been muted compared to A-shares [20][21] Group 3 - Historical analysis indicates that the "spring market" effect is more pronounced in A-shares than in Hong Kong stocks, with A-share indices showing an average increase of 4.6% during the period from early December to early March, compared to only 0.5% for Hong Kong stocks [23][24] - The A-share market has consistently outperformed the Hong Kong market in terms of sector performance, particularly in technology, military, and home appliance sectors, which have shown average gains around 10% [23][24] Group 4 - The structural differences between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks lead to varying earnings growth rates, with A-shares expected to see a growth rate of 4%-5% in 2026 compared to 3% for Hong Kong stocks [30] - A-shares benefit from a more favorable micro liquidity environment, while Hong Kong stocks face multiple constraints, including potential declines in southbound capital inflows [33][34] - The unique structural opportunities in Hong Kong, such as high dividend yields and sectors like internet and innovative pharmaceuticals, provide a complementary investment avenue despite the overall market underperformance [35][36]