Core Viewpoint - The 2026 investment strategy reports from multiple public fund companies indicate a consensus that A-shares will experience a key transition from "valuation expansion" to "profit recovery," suggesting that market trends are likely to continue amid profit restoration [1][8]. Investment Logic: Profit as the Core Driver - "Profit recovery" is identified as the central theme in the public funds' 2026 investment strategy reports, with expectations that the driving logic for the equity market will shift from valuation expansion in 2025 to profit improvement in 2026 [2][8]. - Various institutions, including Ping An Fund and China Merchants Fund, anticipate that corporate profits will continue to recover, transitioning A-shares from a rapid valuation increase to a more gradual profit-supported market [2][8]. - Historical data suggests that A-shares have not experienced three consecutive years of valuation expansion, indicating that corporate profit performance will likely dictate index direction in 2026 [2][3]. - The macroeconomic environment and liquidity conditions are expected to support profit recovery, with a favorable policy environment anticipated both domestically and internationally [2][3]. Investment Themes: Focus on Technology and Cycles - Technology and cyclical sectors are recognized as the primary investment themes, with AI technology and cyclical recovery being highlighted as key areas of interest [4][5]. - Ping An Fund emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and cyclical supply-demand rebalancing as the two main investment lines for 2026, focusing on AI-driven hardware innovation and the domestic semiconductor industry [4][5]. - China Merchants Fund also aligns its strategy around AI technology and cyclical real estate, noting that the global AI industry is still in a "big infrastructure era" with long-term opportunities [4][5]. - Other sectors such as consumption and pharmaceuticals are mentioned for their potential valuation recovery, driven by macroeconomic improvements and rising consumer demand [5][8]. Investment Philosophy: Increased Emphasis on Asset Allocation - The 2026 investment strategy reports show a notable increase in content related to asset allocation, with "fixed income plus" products gaining significant attention [6][8]. - Various funds, including Changcheng Fund and Dachen Fund, predict that "fixed income plus" products will benefit from a favorable environment, leading to a third round of scale expansion [6][7]. - The reports suggest that the domestic passive investment tools will continue to grow rapidly in a low-interest-rate environment, with a focus on innovative "fixed income plus" products and diversified asset allocation strategies [6][7]. - International asset allocation is also gaining traction, with optimism regarding the Hong Kong stock market and a focus on sectors such as technology and consumption [7][8].
公募2026年投资策略趋于明朗：盈利接棒估值 科技与周期共舞
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2026-01-12 01:24