华泰期货镍不锈钢周报：印尼政策反复，价格剧烈波动

Market Analysis - Nickel prices have shown significant volatility, with the main contract opening at 135,000 CNY/ton, peaking at 149,600 CNY/ton, and closing at 139,090 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly increase of 4.7% and a fluctuation of 12.5% [2][12] - The average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel rose to 144,540 CNY/ton, an increase of 4,350 CNY/ton from the previous week [2][12] - The domestic market is experiencing speculative hoarding due to low acceptance of high-priced nickel by downstream users [2][12] Supply and Demand - Supply remains tight for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel, with some downstream users substituting with Sumitomo resources, leading to a significant increase in premiums [3][13] - Domestic demand for nickel iron is rising, but the stainless steel sector is entering a low season, limiting potential rebounds [3][13] - Nickel sulfate prices are increasing due to rising costs, but demand remains weak [3][13] Cost and Profit - The production costs for integrated MHP and high nickel products are 111,026 CNY/ton and 124,817 CNY/ton respectively, with profits of 9.00% and -3.00% [4][13] - The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from externally sourced nickel sulfate is 153,590 CNY/ton, resulting in a profit margin of -10.80% [4][13] - Nickel inventory levels have increased, with Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel stock at 46,650 tons, up from 45,544 tons the previous week [4][13] Strategy - The market is expected to experience significant fluctuations between 135,000 CNY/ton and 150,000 CNY/ton due to the interplay of supply contraction expectations and seasonal demand realities [5][14] - A cautious approach is recommended for high-price chasing, with a focus on range trading [5][14] Macro Environment - U.S. economic data indicates resilience, delaying expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which has strengthened the dollar [2][12] - The People's Bank of China has committed to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy through 2026 to support economic recovery [2][12] - Global resource supply concerns are heightened due to geopolitical tensions, impacting market sentiment towards nickel and stainless steel [7][15] Stainless Steel Market - The stainless steel futures market has followed nickel prices, with the main contract opening at 13,150 CNY/ton and closing at 13,860 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 5.6% [6][14] - The market is experiencing a cautious buying atmosphere despite rising prices, as both buyers and sellers are hesitant [6][14] - The uncertainty surrounding Indonesian policies is expected to significantly influence stainless steel costs and price movements [9][17]