华泰期货焦煤焦炭周报：供需略显宽松，双焦震荡运行

Core Viewpoint - The market for coking coal and coke is experiencing fluctuations primarily due to capacity reduction policies, with prices showing a trend of oscillation and upward movement [2][7]. Supply Analysis - The average daily production of coke from independent coking enterprises is 635,700 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons week-on-week, with a capacity utilization rate of 72.69%, up by 0.97% from the previous week [2][7]. - The average daily production of premium coal from 523 sample mines is 734,300 tons, which is an increase of 44,200 tons week-on-week [2][7]. Demand Analysis - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 surveyed steel mills is 79.31%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points week-on-week and up 2.13 percentage points year-on-year [2][7]. - The capacity utilization rate for ironmaking is 86.04%, which is an increase of 0.78 percentage points week-on-week and up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [2][7]. - The profit margin for steel mills is 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points week-on-week and down 12.99 percentage points year-on-year [2][7]. - The average daily pig iron output is 2.295 million tons, an increase of 20,700 tons week-on-week and up 51,300 tons year-on-year [2][7]. Inventory Analysis - The coke inventory in 247 steel mills is 6.4573 million tons, an increase of 17,400 tons week-on-week [8]. - The coking coal inventory in 247 steel mills is 7.9773 million tons, a decrease of 55,400 tons week-on-week [8]. - The total coking coal inventory for independent coking enterprises is 10.7168 million tons, an increase of 191,800 tons week-on-week [8]. Supply and Demand Logic - The supply-demand contradiction for coke is currently limited, with a slight improvement in demand due to the resumption of production in steel mills, although speculative demand remains insufficient [8]. - The demand for coking coal is expected to improve further due to the resumption of production and inventory replenishment in steel mills before the Spring Festival, alongside a rebound in thermal coal prices [8]. - Recent policies from Yulin City and Inner Mongolia regarding coal production capacity reduction, along with Indonesia's decrease in annual coal production, have raised concerns about future coal supply contraction, providing support for coking coal prices [8]. Strategy - The outlook for coking coal is expected to remain oscillatory [9]. - The outlook for coke is also anticipated to remain oscillatory [9].