华泰期货碳酸锂周报：价格再创新高，年底关注回调风险

Price Trends - The main contract for lithium carbonate showed a "strong surge + high-level fluctuation" this week, with a weekly increase of approximately 17.96%, reaching a peak of 148,500 CNY/ton before closing at 143,420 CNY/ton [2][8] - The domestic industrial-grade lithium carbonate market had a transaction price range of 135,000-141,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 138,000 CNY/ton, up 17.95% from last week [2][8] - The battery-grade lithium carbonate market had a transaction price range of 137,000-143,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 140,000 CNY/ton, up 17.65% from last week [2][8] Supply Side - Lithium carbonate production maintained slight growth this week, with a total weekly output of 22,535 tons, compared to 22,420 tons last week [2][8] - The production breakdown includes spodumene lithium carbonate at 13,959 tons, mica at 2,956 tons, salt lake at 3,185 tons, and recycled lithium carbonate at 3,185 tons, all showing minor increases from the previous week [2][8] Demand Side - According to Baichuan data, lithium iron phosphate production increased by 18.26% month-on-month, while ternary materials decreased by 7.86% [3][9] - Demand in the energy storage sector remains strong, although some lithium iron phosphate and hexafluorophosphate lithium producers plan maintenance, and seasonal factors are suppressing short-term raw material procurement [3][9] - Current spot inventory stands at 109,942 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 337 tons [3][9] Profitability - Lithium concentrate prices are following the upward trend of lithium carbonate futures prices, with mining companies showing a strong willingness to maintain prices despite ample imports [4][10] - Integrated companies are enjoying considerable profits, while processing companies relying on purchased raw materials are experiencing relatively thin margins [4][10] Regulatory Environment - On January 7, a joint meeting was held by several government agencies to further regulate the power and energy storage battery industry [4][10] - On January 9, the Ministry of Finance announced a reduction in the VAT export rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and the complete cancellation of the rebate from January 1, 2027 [4][10] Strategy - The lithium carbonate price continues to rise, but the inventory turning point has been reached, leading to increased divergence in market sentiment; a cautious approach is recommended to avoid high-level chasing risks [5][11] - Short-term strategies include range trading and selling high for hedging [5][11]