智通财经网·2026-01-12 01:33Group 1: Earnings Reports and Expectations - The earnings season for banks will commence with JPMorgan Chase and Bank of New York Mellon reporting on Tuesday, followed by Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America on Wednesday, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on Thursday [1] - Consensus expectations for Q4 earnings per share (EPS) show Citigroup leading with a 21% year-over-year growth among global systemically important banks, while Bank of New York Mellon is expected to grow by 15% in the trust bank category [1] - The most significant upward revisions in EPS consensus over the past six months are for Morgan Stanley (16% growth), Bank of New York Mellon (7.1% growth), and U.S. Bancorp [1] Group 2: Investment Banking and Market Activity - Investment banking revenue is projected to support Q4 performance, with Dealogic forecasting a 15% year-over-year increase in global investment banking revenue to $103 billion and a 42% rise in M&A deal volume to $5.1 trillion [1] - Morgan Stanley's model predicts a 9% year-over-year increase in investment banking fees for Q4, slightly below the market expectation of 11%, while M&A advisory fees are expected to rise by 15% [2] - The trading revenue is anticipated to grow by 8% year-over-year, with equity trading expected to increase by 12%, surpassing the 5% growth forecast for fixed income, foreign exchange, and commodities trading [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategic Insights - Analysts expect that transaction, wealth management, and investment banking will drive growth in 2026, with a slowdown in net interest income growth due to declining interest rates [3] - The banks with the best prospects for net interest income growth in the coming year are Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of New York Mellon, while Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan are preferred in trading business [3] - In the M&A sector, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan are viewed positively for their performance [3] Group 4: Accounting Changes and Financial Impact - Bank of America announced a change in accounting treatment related to tax-advantaged housing and renewable energy investments, which will minimally impact annualized net income [2] - Following the accounting change, Bank of America's retained earnings as of September 30, 2025, will decrease by $1.7 billion, reflecting cumulative effects from the timing differences in expense recognition [2]