光大期货：1月12日软商品日报

Sugar Market - Raw sugar prices continue to fluctuate, with Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume for the 2025/26 season reaching 16.98 million tons as of January 7, a decrease of 5.77 million tons or 25.35% compared to the same period last year [2][15] - The sugar content of the cane is 11.54%, down 0.08% from last year, while the sugar production rate is 9.017%, a decrease of 0.209% year-on-year [2][15] - Sugar production is reported at 1.53 million tons, down 567,300 tons or 27.03% from last year [2][15] - Domestic sugar prices in Guangxi range from 5,320 to 5,380 yuan per ton, while in Yunnan, prices are between 5,140 and 5,230 yuan per ton [2][15] - The market sentiment is generally positive due to rising prices in the financial markets and commodities, although the market is expected to face pressure post-Spring Festival as it enters a sales lull [3][15] Cotton Market - The new cotton planting area is expected to be strongly regulated, with the current cotton inspection volume at approximately 6.7 million tons, an increase of 827,000 tons year-on-year [16][17] - As of January 4, the comprehensive operating rate for yarn production is 49.65%, down 0.45 percentage points week-on-week, indicating a slight decrease in demand from textile enterprises [17][19] - In November, China's cotton imports reached 120,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons month-on-month and 10,000 tons year-on-year, while cotton yarn imports were 150,000 tons, also showing an increase [18][19] - Commercial cotton inventory in China as of the end of December was 5.78 million tons, up 435,700 tons month-on-month and 996,000 tons year-on-year [19][20] - The market is experiencing divergence, with cotton prices rising due to various factors, including anticipated adjustments in planting areas and overall market sentiment, but the increase in raw material costs is compressing profit margins for textile companies [21][20]