管涛：人民币汇率、贸易顺差与中国经济再平衡

Core Viewpoint - The depreciation of the real effective exchange rate and the expansion of trade surplus are currently seen as important reasons for a bullish outlook on the RMB. However, historical trends and comparisons with the JPY/USD exchange rate suggest these reasons may not hold true. The RMB's appreciation should not be used as a policy tool for economic rebalancing, as it contradicts the principle of macro policy consistency and may trigger panic among private sectors [2][3][35]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - Since late November 2025, both onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates have shown a rapid appreciation, with the midpoint and trading prices rising to around 7.0, marking a cumulative increase of nearly 2% for the midpoint and over 4% for trading prices [2][35]. - The real effective exchange rate (REER) of the RMB has declined significantly, dropping 16.7% since March 2022, while the JPY has seen a similar decline of 17.1% during the same period [4][37]. - The recent trends in the JPY/USD exchange rate have not aligned with expectations based on the declining REER and narrowing interest rate differentials, indicating that multiple factors influence exchange rates [8][42]. Group 2: Trade Surplus and RMB Valuation - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's trade surplus reached $1,075.9 billion, an increase of 21.4% compared to the previous year, despite a decline in exports to the US [12][43]. - Historical data shows no simple linear relationship between trade surplus and RMB exchange rate movements, with instances where trade surplus increased while the RMB depreciated [16][47]. - The expansion of trade surplus is not a reliable predictor of RMB appreciation, as evidenced by various years where trade surplus growth coincided with RMB depreciation [16][48]. Group 3: Historical Context of RMB Policy - Following the 2008 global financial crisis, China implemented policies aimed at reducing trade surplus and promoting balance, resulting in a significant appreciation of the RMB due to structural adjustments and increased domestic demand [19][51]. - The relationship between the RMB's real effective exchange rate and China's external balance has shifted from a strong negative correlation (2008-2013) to a weak positive correlation (2014-2024), indicating a change in the effectiveness of leverage in driving investment [27][58]. - The RMB's depreciation in recent years reflects ongoing trade tensions and economic cycles, with the Chinese government emphasizing stability in the exchange rate to prevent rapid depreciation [29][60].