“特朗普变量”搅得金融市场天翻地覆 美联储与全球央行政策路径愈发分化

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the divergence in global central bank monetary policies due to the influence of U.S. President Trump's administration and its impact on economic uncertainty and market volatility [1][5][8] - Bloomberg Economics predicts that the monetary policy paths of major economies will become increasingly diverse over the next two years, moving away from the synchronized approach seen in recent years [4][8] - The "Trump variable" is identified as a significant factor affecting global central bank policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rate expectations and the independence of the Federal Reserve [5][9] Group 2 - The articles indicate that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy may be more flexible than previously anticipated, with expectations of potential rate cuts in 2026 exceeding market predictions [11][12] - Other major central banks, such as those in Canada, Japan, and Switzerland, are expected to announce continued rate hikes, while the Eurozone may maintain its current policy rates [11][12] - Emerging market countries, including Brazil and Nigeria, are anticipated to implement significant rate cuts, further contributing to the divergence in global monetary policy [11][12]