Counterpoint：存储市场已进入“超级牛市” 预计Q1价格还将再涨40%–50%

Core Insights - The storage market has entered a "super bull market" phase, surpassing historical highs from 2018, driven by surging demand for AI and server capacity [1] - Storage prices are expected to rise significantly, with projections indicating a 40%-50% increase by Q4 2025 and another 40%-50% increase in Q1 2026, followed by an approximate 20% rise in Q2 2026 [1] Price Trends - The price of 64GB RDIMM storage has surged from $255 in Q3 2025 to $450 in Q4 2025, with expectations to reach $700 by March 2026 [2] - A price increase to $1,000 within this year is plausible, which would be nearly double the 2018 peak price of $1.00/Gb [2] Cost Structure Changes - The ongoing rise in storage prices is fundamentally altering the Bill of Materials (BoM) for hardware manufacturers [3] - In the iPhone 17 Pro Max, storage now accounts for over 10% of the BoM, up from approximately 8% in the iPhone 12 Pro Max [3] - For flagship models with 16GB-24GB LPDDR5X memory and 512GB-1TB UFS 4.0 storage, storage costs may exceed 20% of the BoM [3] - Major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix are shifting production capacity towards high-margin server DDR5 storage, leading to a rapid contraction in supply of older technologies like LPDDR4 and eMMC [3] Supply Outlook - DRAM production is projected to increase by 24% year-on-year in 2026, but despite rising capital expenditures, it will take time to meet demand [4]