欧元多空血战！是冲1.30还是砸向1.08？

Core Viewpoint - The euro to US dollar exchange rate is experiencing fluctuations influenced by various factors, including European Central Bank policies, the economic recovery in the Eurozone, and the monetary policy dynamics with the Federal Reserve, leading to divergent market predictions for 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Euro to US Dollar Exchange Rate Trends - As of January 12, 2026, the euro to US dollar exchange rate is reported at 1.1659, showing slight fluctuations from the previous trading day [1]. - In 2025, the euro to US dollar exchange rate exhibited a "volatile upward trend followed by stabilization," with an annual fluctuation range primarily between 1.15 and 1.19, and a year-end closing at 1.1734, indicating a significant improvement compared to 2024 [1]. - Key supporting factors for the euro include a gradual decline in Eurozone inflation towards the European Central Bank's 2% target and the implementation of fiscal expansion policies in some member countries, boosting economic recovery confidence [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Policy Divergence - Recent policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank has intensified market volatility, with the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025, amidst internal disagreements on future rate changes [2]. - The European Central Bank faces mixed market expectations, with some institutions anticipating potential rate hikes due to hawkish comments from officials, while Morgan Stanley predicts a 50 basis point cut by mid-2026 [2]. - Forecasts for the euro to US dollar exchange rate in 2026 show significant divergence, with optimistic projections suggesting a rise to 1.30 or 1.23, while cautious views predict a decline to 1.08 or an average of 1.15 in the third quarter [2]. Group 3: Risks to Euro Performance - The economic recovery in the Eurozone remains fragile, with persistent export weaknesses and debt risks in some member countries potentially hindering euro performance [3]. - Increased uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policies could lead to a rebound in the dollar if rate cuts are delayed or adjusted due to political pressures, which may suppress the euro's value [3]. - Internal policy disagreements within the European Central Bank and international geopolitical changes could further exacerbate exchange rate volatility [3].