MMA及丙烯酸酯市场继续承压

Group 1 - The global MMA and acrylate market will face uneven demand, changing trade flows, and cautious procurement attitudes in 2026, despite signs of tightening supply in some regions [1] - In Europe, MMA demand is weak in Q1 2026, but the market is expected to tighten due to the closure of arbitrage opportunities from Asia, with local producers competing for contracts [1] - The average CIF price of MMA in Northwest Europe was €1297.18/ton in November 2025, nearing the offshore price from Asia, leading to a halt in imports [1] Group 2 - Middle Eastern low-cost MMA supplies are pressuring the European market, contributing to price declines, while the LiMA facility in Texas is ramping up production, potentially increasing U.S. exports to Europe [2] - The MMA export volume from the U.S. is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.46% over the next five years, positioning the U.S. as a net exporter [2] - In the acrylate market, buyers in Europe are securing attractive contract discounts, with a preference for long-term contracts to ensure stable supply [2] Group 3 - The U.S. MMA market's performance will heavily depend on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, as real estate demand constitutes 85% to 90% of MMA's end-use [3] - Despite maintenance at key facilities, U.S. MMA spot prices remained between 87 to 91 cents/lb in Q4 2025, with a modest demand increase of 1% to 2% expected in 2026 [3] - The U.S. acrylate market faces challenges, with weak downstream demand and complex trade flows due to tariff policies, leading to a shift towards Latin American sources [3] Group 4 - In Asia, MMA prices are expected to decline in 2026 due to weak demand and high inventories, with Chinese and Southeast Asian offshore prices continuing to fall [4] - India's BA market is undergoing structural changes with new domestic production capabilities, reducing reliance on imports and leading to the lowest prices since the pandemic [4] - The total BA production capacity in India is projected to reach 280,000 tons/year, meeting 70% to 75% of domestic demand, fundamentally altering market dynamics [4]