有色涨热潮：宏观、供需与产业变革共舞，后市谁主沉浮？长江1#铜价大涨2600元/吨

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in non-ferrous metal prices is driven by improved macroeconomic expectations, a reshaped supply-demand landscape, and transformative changes in industrial demand [1][2][9] Group 1: Macroeconomic Expectations - Global macroeconomic conditions are favorable for rising non-ferrous metal prices, with expectations of liquidity easing and a rebound in risk appetite following a slowdown in U.S. employment growth and a drop in unemployment rate [2] - The U.S. stock market, particularly the S&P 500, has reached record highs, boosting global risk appetite and directing funds towards commodities, making non-ferrous metals a focal point for investment [2] - In China, government stimulus plans, including consumption incentives and large-scale investment projects, are expected to enhance market sentiment and increase demand for non-ferrous metals [2] Group 2: Supply-Demand Landscape Supply Side - Supply constraints are evident, with significant production interruptions in major copper mines, leading to heightened concerns about copper supply [3] - Domestic aluminum production is nearing capacity limits, while overseas production is hampered by power issues, limiting overall supply growth [3][4] - Other metals like zinc and nickel are also facing supply tightness due to geopolitical tensions and production policy changes in key regions [4] Demand Side - Traditional demand for copper remains stable, while new demand from sectors like artificial intelligence and electric vehicles is surging, particularly in China [5][6] - Aluminum demand is expected to strengthen due to new energy applications, despite seasonal slowdowns in traditional sectors [5] - Zinc demand is anticipated to rise as companies prepare for year-end orders and stockpiling ahead of the Lunar New Year [5] Group 3: Industrial Demand Transformation - Rapid developments in emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and renewable energy are reshaping the demand structure for non-ferrous metals, with significant growth in the need for copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin [7] - Tin is experiencing explosive demand due to its critical role in advanced computing and AI infrastructure, while nickel is driven by the growth of high-nickel batteries in electric vehicles [7] Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall outlook for non-ferrous metal prices remains strong, supported by macroeconomic improvements and structural changes in supply and demand [9] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate between 101,500 and 104,500 yuan/ton, while aluminum may see a rebound despite seasonal demand pressures [9] - Zinc and lead prices are projected to rise due to increased demand and low inventory levels, while nickel and tin are expected to maintain a strong upward trend due to ongoing supply constraints and robust industrial demand [9]