长江有色：宏观预期资金轮动与供需紧平衡 12日铅价或上涨

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the recent strength in lead prices is a result of a combination of macroeconomic expectations, capital flows, and fundamental market conditions [2] - The macroeconomic environment shows a reassessment of policy paths in major economies, which has alleviated pressure on the US dollar and directed capital towards non-ferrous metals and cyclical sectors [2] - The lead market is experiencing a tight balance between rigid supply (due to tight primary mineral supply and slow recovery of recycled lead) and resilient demand (stable traditional sectors and growth in emerging sectors like energy storage) [2] Group 2 - Global lead inventories are at historically low levels, which amplifies price elasticity and supports the strong performance of lead prices [2] - The supply side faces multiple constraints, including low visible inventories, tight primary mineral supply, and slow recovery of recycled lead production, leading to insufficient overall supply elasticity [2] - Demand is showing unexpected resilience, driven by traditional pre-holiday restocking and robust growth in emerging sectors, which provides strong support to traditional consumption [2] Group 3 - The current price increase is not driven by short-term speculation but is supported by a marginal improvement in macro liquidity expectations and a reassessment of the tight supply-demand fundamentals of lead [2] - Given the low inventory levels, constrained supply growth, and structural demand highlights, lead prices are expected to maintain strong resilience in the short term, making it easier for prices to rise than to fall [2]