花旗：印尼今年可能违反3%的法定赤字上限

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup indicates that Indonesia's fiscal deficit is likely to significantly exceed the legal limit due to increased government spending on the national free meal program and reconstruction efforts in flood-affected provinces of Sumatra [1] Group 1: Fiscal Deficit Projections - Citigroup has raised its forecast for Indonesia's 2026 budget deficit from an initial estimate of 2.7% of GDP to 3.5% [1] - The bank's baseline prediction assumes that the Indonesian government will revise the National Fiscal Law before the second half of this year to relax the long-standing 3% fiscal deficit limit [1] Group 2: Government Spending and Debt - Economist Helmi Arman noted that if Indonesian authorities opt for significant spending cuts to maintain fiscal discipline, it may be possible to avoid exceeding the deficit limit [1] - Indonesia's debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from an estimated 39% in 2025 to approximately 42% by 2029 [1]