热搜预警！今日长江现货1#镍涨3700元，印尼配额博弈下镍价震荡机遇何在？

Core Market Situation - The spot nickel price in the Yangtze River market surged by 3,700 yuan, averaging 147,550 yuan/ton, while the Shanghai nickel futures contract rose over 4% [1] - The current market dynamics reflect a tug-of-war between the strong expectations of policy tightening in Indonesia and the weak reality of high global inventories, leading to significant price volatility [1] Key Drivers - The recent price increase is driven by a resonance of macroeconomic and industrial policy expectations, particularly concerning Indonesia's nickel supply quotas [1] - Despite the bullish sentiment, high inventories in both LME and domestic markets act as a ceiling on price increases, creating a cautious market outlook regarding the actual impact of any favorable policies [1] Industry Fundamentals - The supply-demand structure shows significant differentiation, with domestic refined nickel production increasing while Indonesian nickel pig iron production slightly declines [2] - Short-term demand is under pressure, particularly in the new energy battery materials sector, but robust demand from the stainless steel sector, supported by manufacturing recovery and consumption promotion policies, provides a solid foundation [2] Market Outlook - Nickel prices are expected to maintain a wide fluctuation range between 140,000 and 150,000 yuan/ton, influenced by the interplay of policy expectations and inventory pressures [2] - Investors are advised to remain rational in a volatile environment, focusing on price fluctuation opportunities and signs of marginal improvement in fundamentals [2]