美联储主席鲍威尔遭调查，特朗普祭出“房贷QE”、设信用卡上限

Core Viewpoint - The criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by U.S. federal prosecutors marks a significant escalation in the conflict between President Trump and Powell, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Investigation and Political Pressure - The investigation includes analyzing Powell's public statements and reviewing expenditure records, approved by Trump's ally, prosecutor Jeanine Pirro [3]. - Powell has repeatedly rejected Trump's requests for interest rate cuts, leading to Trump's criticism and threats of criminal prosecution related to Powell's testimony before Congress [3][4]. - Powell asserts that the investigation is a pretext for exerting political pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions [3][4]. Group 2: Administrative Interventions in Interest Rates - Trump has taken actions to directly influence interest rates, including instructing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, seen as an attempt to lower housing costs ahead of the midterm elections [5]. - Trump's call to set a credit card interest rate cap at 10% starting January 20, 2026, is viewed as further administrative intervention in key interest rates [5]. - Goldman Sachs notes that this "quasi-QE" approach, while limited in short-term financial impact, signals a significant shift in policy that could disrupt the valuation framework of the U.S. mortgage-backed securities market [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman criticized Trump's pressure on interest rates, warning it could lead to significant negative consequences for consumers and financial institutions [6]. - The potential for increased inflation due to forced interest rate cuts could adversely affect the Republican Party in future elections, as public sentiment is sensitive to inflation [7]. - The credibility and independence of the Federal Reserve are increasingly seen as at risk due to these political pressures, prompting investors to consider the implications of such a scenario [6][7].