黄金时间·一周金市回顾：金银向上突破在即

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price experienced a significant increase of 4.10% last week, closing at $4,510.26 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][5]. Geopolitical Risks vs. Commodity Index Rebalancing - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Iran, and the rebalancing of commodity indices were the two main themes affecting the precious metals market last week [2]. - Protests in Iran against rising prices and currency devaluation have led to unrest, with threats from U.S. President Trump to intervene, further escalating tensions [3]. - The U.S. government's renewed interest in Greenland has drawn international criticism, particularly from Denmark and other European nations, highlighting the geopolitical landscape's impact on market sentiment [3]. Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The influx of "safe-haven" funds remains a key factor supporting the rise in gold prices amid ongoing geopolitical headlines [4]. - Despite potential selling pressure from the rebalancing of major commodity indices, the focus may shift back to structural factors that drove price increases last year once this process concludes [4]. - The market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of a breakthrough in gold prices, as indicated by the recent Kitco News survey showing a bullish consensus among Wall Street analysts [6][7]. Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Commentary - The U.S. ISM manufacturing report indicated strong economic conditions, temporarily dampening expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but this sentiment quickly reversed following a disappointing non-farm payroll report [5]. - Upcoming inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, is anticipated to significantly influence market sentiment and gold prices in the coming week [5]. - The Federal Reserve's officials are expected to provide insights on interest rate changes, which could further impact market dynamics [5]. Price Levels and Projections - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices have stabilized above the $4,500 per ounce mark, with short-term resistance at $4,550 and potential targets of $4,630 to $4,700 [7]. - Domestic gold prices face short-term resistance in the range of 108-1038 CNY per gram, with mid-term targets pointing towards 1100-1200 CNY per gram [8]. - Silver prices are projected to face short-term resistance at $81-$85 per ounce, with mid-term targets of $99-$102 per ounce [8].