World's most vital oil chokepoint back in focus amid possible U.S. intervention in Iran

Core Insights - The Strait of Hormuz is under scrutiny due to potential U.S. intervention in Iran, which could disrupt a critical energy chokepoint through which nearly a third of the world's seaborne crude flows transit [2][4]. Group 1: Market Impact - A disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a global oil and gas crisis, especially if the Iranian regime feels threatened [3]. - Approximately 13 million barrels per day of crude oil transited the Strait in 2025, representing about 31% of global seaborne crude flows [4]. - Analysts predict that oil prices could spike by $10 to $20 per barrel in the event of a complete closure of the Strait, while a fear of closure could raise prices by a few dollars per barrel [7]. Group 2: Risk Assessment - Military action against Iran carries significantly higher risks compared to Venezuela due to the volume of crude and refined product supply involved [6]. - Experts estimate a 70% likelihood of selective U.S. strikes on Iran, which could lead to immediate oil price spikes [6]. - Despite the potential for disruption, most analysts believe catastrophic outcomes remain low-probability events, as Iran may not fully close the Strait due to regional power dynamics and U.S. naval presence [8]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The oil market is currently leaning towards oversupply, with an estimated excess supply of 2.5 million barrels per day in January and over 3 million barrels per day in February and March [9]. - Any closure of the Strait would likely be met with a show of force by the U.S. and allies to restore oil flows [9]. Group 4: Geopolitical Context - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is more complex than in Latin America, making it difficult for the U.S. to adopt a Venezuela-style strategy towards Iran [11]. - The current U.S. strategy appears to focus on consolidating power in the Western Hemisphere rather than direct military action against Iran [11].