华北玉米：价格盘整、供需拉锯何时休？

Core Viewpoint - Starting from November 2025, corn prices in North China entered a narrow consolidation phase, with limited selling from farmers and demand-driven purchasing from downstream, leading to constrained price fluctuations. As the Spring Festival approaches, farmer selling activity is expected to gradually increase, but downstream stocking demand remains limited, resulting in a relatively loose supply-demand balance and a forecasted slight decline in corn prices before the festival [3][15]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - From November 2025, the main corn price in North China adjusted between 2206.43 and 2228.57 yuan/ton, experiencing a rise followed by a decline [3][15]. - As of January 8, 2026, the average selling progress of farmers in North China was 39%, which is 5 percentage points slower than the same period last year, indicating a slowdown in selling activity after an initial surge due to favorable weather during the harvest [6][17]. - The supply of corn from farmers is limited, and the new supply is slightly tight, providing some support for corn prices [6][17]. Group 2: Farmer Selling Activity - After the New Year in 2026, there was a slight increase in selling enthusiasm among farmers in some areas of North China, but overall selling volume is expected to be lower than in previous years [8][19]. - The moisture content of corn in some regions remains above 16%, limiting the supply of quality dry corn and affecting inventory levels in the trade sector [8][19]. Group 3: Downstream Demand - In the feed sector, due to declining grain quality and tight supplies of dry corn, North China relies heavily on corn from Northeast China, which is facing slow outbound movement [9][20]. - As of December 2025, the average inventory days for feed enterprises in North China increased to 35.63 days, up by 12.31 days from the end of October, indicating a gradual increase in corn inventory [9][20]. - Despite some demand for inventory buildup before the Spring Festival, enterprises are generally cautious about current prices, leading to limited stocking volumes [9][20]. Group 4: Processing Sector - After the new crop is listed, the supply of wet corn in North China is relatively sufficient, but the supply of quality dry corn is significantly lower than in previous years [11][22]. - The processing enterprises are experiencing slow inventory increases due to the lowest theoretical processing profit levels in three years, which limits their acceptance of high prices [11][22]. - Overall, as farmer selling increases, the support for corn prices in North China is expected to weaken, with a forecasted price drop of 20-40 yuan/ton, potentially bringing the average price down to around 2200 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival [13][22].