中信建投证券:预计我国可回收火箭年内迎来密集试飞,更好满足卫星发射需求
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2026-01-12 06:17

Group 1 - The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) reported that by December 2025, China has submitted plans for over 200,000 large-scale satellite constellations, setting a new record for satellite constellation applications in the country [1][2] - The applications include contributions from various entities such as China Satellite Network Group, Shanghai Yuanxin, and traditional telecom operators like China Mobile and China Telecom, indicating a rapid integration of satellite internet into the national information infrastructure [1][2] - According to ITU regulations, satellite frequency and orbital resources follow a "first-come, first-served" principle, requiring the first satellite to be launched within seven years of application and full deployment within nine years, which means China must launch its first satellite by the end of 2032 and complete all deployments by the end of 2039, averaging 14,300 launches per year [2] Group 2 - CITIC Securities predicts that by 2026, China will see a surge in test flights of reusable rockets, which will help reduce launch costs and increase frequency to meet the growing demand for satellite launches [3] - In 2025, China successfully completed the maiden flights of the Zhuque-3 and Long March 12A reusable rockets, although further technical iterations are needed for first-stage recovery [3] - The construction and utilization of domestic commercial rocket launch sites are expected to shorten the test flight cycle, with the total number of launches in 2026 projected to exceed 100, up from 92 in 2025, laying a solid foundation for regular reusable rocket launches [3] Group 3 - A detailed table outlines various rocket models planned for 2026, including the Long March 12A, Long March 12B, and Zhuque-3, with specific launch timelines and key information about their development status [4] - The Long March 12A has successfully completed its first flight but is currently undergoing optimization for recovery, while the Long March 12B is expected to have its maiden flight in 2026 [4] - Other models like the Long March 10 series and Zhuque-3 are also scheduled for launches in 2026, indicating a robust pipeline for China's space launch capabilities [4]