【央行圆桌汇】非农喜忧参半 美联储降息概率全面走低（2026年1月12日）

Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China plans to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy through 2026, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve officials suggest that current interest rates may be close to the "neutral rate," with future policy decisions dependent on the latest economic data [2] - The Bank of Japan maintains its economic assessment across all nine regions, indicating a need for high-level wage increases in 2026 [2][3] Economic Indicators - China's foreign exchange reserves reached a ten-year high of $3.3579 trillion as of December 2025, with a month-on-month increase of $11.5 billion, marking a growth rate of 0.34% [1] - Japan's real wages fell by 2.8% year-on-year in November 2025, continuing a decline for 11 consecutive months [2] Central Bank Actions - The Bank of Israel has lowered its benchmark interest rate to 4%, with market expectations for a further reduction to 4.25% [3] - The Reserve Bank of Australia suggests that previous interest rate cuts may be the last in the current cycle [3] - The Bank of Thailand is tightening regulations on foreign exchange transactions related to gold, amid pressures on the Thai baht [3][6] Market Observations - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for December 2025 showed only 50,000 new jobs added, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%, providing justification for the Fed to maintain its current policy stance [5] - Analysts predict that the U.S. dollar may face depreciation pressure due to the government's attempts to influence monetary policy direction [5] Upcoming Events - Key speeches from Federal Reserve officials are scheduled throughout the week, including discussions on economic outlooks and monetary policy [7]