四箭齐发！2026年A股新增资金大潮，到底有多猛？

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is expected to enter a "golden period" in 2026, driven by four major factors: the influx of deposits, RMB appreciation, increased insurance funds, and a shift of funds from the bond market to equities [3][11]. Group 1: Influx of Deposits - A significant amount of deposits, approximately 32 trillion yuan, will mature between 2025 and 2026, leading to a potential influx into the stock market [3][11]. - The estimated inflow scenarios for 2026 are: conservative scenario of 800 to 1,000 billion yuan, neutral scenario of 1,500 to 2,200 billion yuan, and optimistic scenario reaching up to 3,000 billion yuan [3][11]. - It is noted that not all matured deposits will flow into the stock market, with 60%-70% potentially diverted to other uses, but even 30%-40% represents a substantial increase [3][11]. Group 2: RMB Appreciation - Starting from the end of 2025, the RMB is expected to enter an appreciation phase, with potential funding sources including northbound capital, foreign trade settlement, and foreign direct investment [4][12]. - The estimated inflow scenarios for RMB appreciation are: conservative scenario of 500 to 600 billion yuan, neutral scenario of 800 to 1,200 billion yuan, and optimistic scenario of 1,500 to 1,800 billion yuan [4][12][13]. - The sustainability of RMB appreciation is deemed more important than the magnitude, with domestic economic recovery being crucial for attracting long-term foreign capital [4][13]. Group 3: Increased Insurance Funds - Insurance capital has already shown its strength by investing in the CSI A500 index fund, indicating a strong commitment to the market [5][14]. - Predictions for insurance capital inflow in 2026 range from 3,000 to 7,700 billion yuan, with estimates from various institutions varying significantly [5][14]. - Insurance funds are characterized as long-term value investors, suggesting a positive outlook for the A-share market in 2026 [5][14]. Group 4: Shift of Funds from Bond Market - A historical shift of funds from the bond market to equities has been observed, which is expected to continue into 2026 due to declining bond yields and the attractiveness of equity returns [6][15]. - The estimated inflow scenarios for bond market funds are: conservative scenario of 800 to 1,000 billion yuan, neutral scenario of 1,500 to 2,200 billion yuan, and optimistic scenario reaching up to 3,000 billion yuan [6][15]. - In total, under a neutral scenario, the combined new funding sources for 2026 could reach 4.1 to 6.17 trillion yuan, with optimistic scenarios exceeding 9 trillion yuan [6][15].