降息与避险共振 金银刷新历史+铂金创十六年新高

Group 1 - Precious metals prices are experiencing a strong upward trend, with spot gold surpassing $4600 for the first time and accumulating a $280 increase in January. Spot silver reached $83.9 per ounce, exceeding previous highs and setting a new record, with a daily increase nearing 5% [1][2] - The rise in gold and silver prices is driven by heightened market risk aversion and increased capital inflow, indicating a potential continuation of the strong trend in the short term [1][2] - Platinum prices also surged on January 12, 2026, reaching between $2346.5 and $2397 per ounce, with daily gains of 3.13% to 4.37%, marking the highest levels since 2008 [1][5] Group 2 - Multiple factors are pushing gold and silver to new historical highs, including disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, which strengthens expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran, increasing demand for safe-haven assets [2] - The Federal Reserve's policy remains a key variable, with expectations that interest rates may eventually decline as the labor market cools, although no rate cuts are anticipated this month [3][2] - The supply-demand dynamics for silver are tight, with industrial consumption and investor demand competing against a shortage of new mines, leading to expectations that silver prices could easily surpass $100 per ounce [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is on an upward trajectory, with resistance levels identified between $4664 and $4766, while support levels are at $4408 and the 20-day moving average at $4392 [4] - Silver's price volatility is part of a long-term bullish trend supported by strong demand and supply shortages, although it currently relies on a single support line at $74.83 [4] - The platinum market is experiencing strong bullish momentum, driven by tight global supply and increased demand from the hydrogen industry, with a short-term target price of $2400 to $2420 per ounce [5]