供应季节性增加 中长期看白糖期货上方空间有限

Group 1 - Thailand's sugar production is projected to reach 10.3 million tons in 2025/26, followed by a decrease to 10 million tons in 2026/27 according to the Thai Sugar Industry Committee [1] - Indian sugar mills have signed export contracts for approximately 180,000 tons of sugar this year, driven by domestic price adjustments and a weak rupee [1] - The FAO sugar price index averaged 90.7 points in December, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.1 points (2.4%), but a year-on-year decline of 28.6 points (24.0%) [1] Group 2 - The focus in the market has shifted to the production situation in the Northern Hemisphere, with strong expectations for increased production in India [2] - Domestic sugar supply pressure is expected to increase as new sugar production begins, with high import volumes anticipated in January [2] - The current sugar market may face limited upward potential due to significant supply pressures from both domestic and imported sugar [2] Group 3 - Brazilian sugar production is nearing its end, alleviating seasonal supply pressures, while raw sugar is expected to maintain a weak trend [3] - Southern sugar mills in China are starting to process, leading to a seasonal increase in sugar supply, which will gradually reveal supply pressures [3] - Domestic sugar production costs are relatively high, providing support for the market, despite the anticipated seasonal supply pressures and increased production [3]