华宝基金2026科技展望：立足“3变2不变”，港股估值拉升只差一个逻辑，重点关注大数据、创业板人工智能

Group 1: Market Outlook Post 4100 Points - The A-share market has seen a significant rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising above 4100 points and daily trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan, indicating a "bottom release market" that has improved the market's profitability [2][11] - The overall outlook for 2026 remains positive, particularly for technology stocks in the first half, although a short-term adjustment is expected after the recent surge [2][11] - The previous strong performers, such as the optical module sector, may see a rebound, providing opportunities for investors during market corrections [2][11] Group 2: Domestic AI Trends - There is a consensus that 2026 will be a pivotal year for domestic AI, but this comes with challenges such as high expectations leading to elevated valuations and potential volatility in sectors like semiconductors and IDC [3][12] - Companies representing GPU technology must deliver on performance in the second half of 2026 to maintain current valuation levels [3][12] - The domestic cloud service providers face critical decisions regarding capital expenditure and the approach to domestic training and inference [3][12] Group 3: Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market was disappointing in Q4 2025, but this could lead to better performance in 2026, especially if A-share funds flow into Hong Kong [4][13] - A potential influx of 10% of A-share capital into Hong Kong could double its trading activity, contingent on a favorable trading environment in A-shares [4][13] - Key unchanged factors include the demand for computing power and abundant global liquidity, while changes such as advancements in high-end GPU manufacturing and the emphasis on physical AI by companies like Nvidia and Tesla could impact market dynamics [4][13] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The market may experience short-term corrections, presenting excellent buying opportunities, particularly in sectors like optical modules represented by the AI ETF [5][14] - Suggested investment directions include focusing on products related to the Hong Kong market and the big data industry, which may see strong performance alongside semiconductor and AI sectors [5][6][14] - The big data ETF is expected to perform well, similar to the trends observed in the technology and AI sectors [6][14]