恐高又怕踏空，怎么办？

Group 1 - The consensus for 2026 is that both stocks and bonds present opportunities [1][24] - The A-share market opened strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising above 4100 points, indicating a vibrant trading environment [2][25] - There are growing concerns among investors about the high levels of the market, particularly as historical instances of the index surpassing 4000 points are rare [3][4][28] Group 2 - Many investors are adopting a cautious approach, opting to allocate some funds to bonds due to the recent adjustments in the bond market, which have alleviated pressure [6][30] - The bond market is seen as a necessary allocation for investors who are anxious about high stock prices, with secondary bond funds experiencing significant growth [7][32] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total market size of secondary bond funds exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan, with a quarterly growth rate of 61% [7][32] Group 3 - Historical performance indicates that secondary bond fund indices exhibit less volatility compared to stock indices, providing stronger return elasticity during stock market uptrends [8][32] - The upcoming launch of the Guotai Dingli Bond Fund is highlighted, with its manager, Cheng Yao, having a strong background in macroeconomic analysis [11][35] - Cheng Yao's managed secondary bond fund, Guotai Min'an Zengli, achieved a one-year return of 7.48%, ranking in the top 25% of its category [12][35] Group 4 - Cheng Yao's other fund, Guotai Tongli A, reported a one-year return of 8.29%, also outperforming its benchmark and peer average [14][37] - The outlook for 2026 suggests a structural transformation at the bottom of the economic cycle, with both domestic and international factors influencing market conditions [18][41] - The recommended investment strategy for 2026 is "bonds as a foundation, stocks as an offensive," which aligns with the current market environment [18][41]