长城基金汪立：A股处于春季做多窗口期

Group 1: Market Overview - After New Year's Day, there was a surge in capital as expectations for an upward market trend increased, leading to a significant rise in trading volume in both markets, boosting high-risk technology growth sectors while low-position technology began to recover [1][7] - The overall market maintained a pattern of broad gains last week, with technology growth and resource sectors continuing as the main lines, and the military industry sector's performance expanded from commercial aerospace to other sub-sectors, with AI application-related media and computer industries strengthening [1][7] Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis - In December, domestic inflation maintained a steady upward trend, with core inflation showing resilience. The National Bureau of Statistics reported a year-on-year CPI growth of +0.8% and a month-on-month increase of +0.2%, while PPI saw a year-on-year decline of -1.9% but a month-on-month recovery to +0.2% [2][8] - The increase in CPI was attributed to four main factors: reduced drag from food prices, strengthened input factors including energy, gold, and non-ferrous metals, stable prices of black metals, and ongoing policy impacts. However, long-term recovery still requires continuous improvement in household balance sheets [2][8] Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - The central bank continues to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to promote low social financing costs. The 2026 People's Bank of China work meeting emphasized the flexible and efficient use of various monetary policy tools to maintain ample liquidity and relatively loose social financing conditions [2][8] - Attention is needed on the market's expectations for new policies during the two sessions in February and March [2][8] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The Chinese stock market is expected to cross and stabilize at important levels, supported by factors such as the upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve chair, market expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts in 2026, and continued inflow of incremental funds represented by A500 ETF [4][10] - The decision-makers have emphasized the need to "promote investment stabilization," highlighting the necessity of policy efforts to boost growth, with "counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments" likely to be intensified [4][10] Group 5: Investment Focus - The company is relatively optimistic about technology, non-bank financials, and cyclical sectors. Specifically, in technology growth, current overseas computing power valuations are reasonable, and subsequent performance revisions are key, with AI application valuations offering certain cost-effectiveness [5][11] - Non-bank financials are expected to benefit from increased wealth management demand, while cyclical sectors are at low valuations with marginal improvements in economic conditions, suggesting potential opportunities in tourism services, hotels, consumer goods, and resource products likely to see price increases [5][11] - Thematic investments in AI applications, robotics, and commercial aerospace are anticipated to gain traction, with a favorable trading environment expected for these themes [5][11]