【机构观债】2025年12月债市交投活跃度攀升 信用利差震荡运行

Core Viewpoint - The bond secondary market experienced a continuous increase in trading atmosphere in December 2025, with total transaction amounts showing year-on-year and month-on-month growth, particularly in credit bonds [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In December, the total transaction amount in the bond secondary market reached 376,780.29 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.75% and a month-on-month increase of 10.60% [1]. - The transaction amount for interest rate bonds was 219,753.95 billion, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of 7.15% and 2.49%, respectively [3]. - Credit bonds saw a significant increase in transaction amounts, totaling 88,964.95 billion, with year-on-year growth of 17.90% and month-on-month growth of 21.31%, becoming the main driver of market growth [3]. Group 2: Credit Spread Analysis - The overall credit spread in December continued its fluctuating trend, ending the month at 42.32 basis points, with a cumulative narrowing of 24.01 basis points for the year, indicating an improved credit environment compared to the beginning of the year [3][4]. - Most industry credit spreads widened in December, with real estate, power equipment, basic chemicals, pharmaceutical biology, and social services having high spreads, while communication, electronics, public utilities, transportation, and non-ferrous metals had lower spreads [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The credit spread is expected to continue a narrow fluctuation and slight narrowing trend, supported by stable economic growth and a moderately loose liquidity environment, while facing pressures from government bond supply and overseas policy fluctuations [5]. - Factors supporting the narrowing of credit spreads include ongoing economic stability, continued easing of liquidity policies, and improvements in credit quality for local government financing platforms [5].