债市日报：1月12日

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is showing a strong consolidation trend, with government bond futures mostly rising and interbank bond yields slightly declining, indicating a potential high point in the yield curve [1][2][6] Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.30% at 111.2, the 10-year main contract up 0.06% at 107.845, and the 5-year main contract up 0.05% at 105.625 [2] - The interbank bond yields mostly decreased slightly, with the 30-year government bond yield down 0.3 basis points to 2.3%, and the 10-year yield down 0.2 basis points to 1.968% [2] Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields mostly rose, with the 2-year yield up 4.60 basis points to 3.532% and the 10-year yield up 0.4 basis points to 4.167% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields continued to rise, with the 5-year and 10-year yields increasing by 2.5 basis points and 2 basis points, respectively [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds from France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased slightly [3] Primary Market - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had bidding yields of 1.4982% for 1.0356-year, 1.6494% for 3-year, and 2.0047% for 10-year, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.06, 3.82, and 3.65 respectively [4] Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 861 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 361 billion yuan for the day [5] - Shibor rates for short-term products mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 4.4 basis points to 1.316% [5] Institutional Views - Huatai Securities noted that the market is experiencing a "New Year rally" due to increased capital inflow and high sentiment, but cautioned that rapid local market movements may require regulatory observation [6] - Zhongyou Securities emphasized that the steep yield curve presents a certain opportunity, suggesting that long-term yields lack the basis for significant upward trends [7]