【2026年汇市展望】美联储政策仍是关键变量 2026年印尼卢比走势取决于内外博弈

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian Rupiah has undergone a pressure test in 2025 amidst increasing global financial uncertainty and diverging monetary policies among major economies, showing resilience despite external shocks and maintaining a dynamic balance with domestic fundamentals [1][2]. Exchange Rate Performance - In 2025, the USD/IDR exchange rate increased by 2.74%, with the Rupiah showing weaker performance among major Asian emerging market currencies but avoiding uncontrolled depreciation [2][7]. - The exchange rate fluctuated between 15,785 and 16,974, with a maximum amplitude of nearly 11% throughout the year [2][3]. Economic Fundamentals - Indonesia's GDP growth is projected at approximately 5% for 2025, remaining relatively high among major emerging markets, with Q1 growth at 4.87%, Q2 at 5.12%, and Q3 at 5.04% [5][6]. - The country maintained a trade surplus of $38.54 billion from January to November 2025, marking the 67th consecutive month of surplus, with foreign exchange reserves rising to $150.1 billion [6][7]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The consumer price index rose by 2.92% year-on-year in December 2025, remaining within the central bank's target range of 1.5% to 3.5% [6]. - The central bank cut policy rates five times in 2025, maintaining a benchmark rate of 4.75% from October to December, and indicated potential for further easing depending on inflation and external conditions [9][10]. Future Outlook - For 2026, the Rupiah is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern rather than a unilateral trend, with the central bank targeting an exchange rate around 16,500 [8][10]. - The outlook for the Rupiah will depend on external financial conditions and domestic structural reforms, with potential for the exchange rate to range between 15,500 and 16,200 by the end of 2026 [10].