美联储风波叠加伊朗局势，金银价格刷新历史纪录

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified due to threats of criminal prosecution from the U.S. Department of Justice, alongside rising demand for safe-haven assets driven by protests in Iran, leading to record highs in gold and silver prices [1][4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the potential prosecution should be viewed in the context of ongoing government pressure to influence interest rate decisions [1][4]. - Following Powell's comments, gold prices surged to nearly $4,600 per ounce, while silver approached $85 per ounce [1][4]. - The U.S. dollar weakened, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose slightly [1][5]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors and Precious Metals - Protests in Iran have led to speculation about a potential regime change, increasing the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven investments [1][5]. - Multiple favorable factors, including declining U.S. interest rates, escalating geopolitical tensions, and a decrease in trust in the dollar, have supported gold and silver prices [1][5]. - Fund managers expressed confidence in the long-term attractiveness of precious metals, opting not to significantly reduce their gold positions [1][5]. Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices surged nearly 6%, reaching a historical high of $84.6090 per ounce, with a 150% increase over the past year [2][6]. - The silver market is expected to face supply shortages through 2026, driven by strong investment demand and rising industrial needs [2][6]. - Concerns over U.S. tariffs affecting silver, platinum, and palladium are anticipated, with a report expected in January [2][6]. Group 4: Economic Indicators and Interest Rate Expectations - Recent U.S. employment data did not alter market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which supports non-yielding precious metals [3][6]. - The Federal Reserve has already cut rates three times in the latter half of the previous year, with the market pricing in at least two more cuts this year [3][6]. - Analysts noted that weak labor market data reinforces expectations for an earlier and more aggressive shift to rate cuts, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [7].