开年火爆的脑机接口怎么“跟”？这些ETF或能锁定板块行情

Core Insights - The brain-computer interface (BCI) market is gaining significant attention following Elon Musk's announcement of large-scale production plans for his company Neuralink starting in 2026, shifting perceptions from skepticism to optimism about commercialization [1] - Current applications of BCI technology are still in clinical trial phases, facing ethical and social acceptance challenges, leading to varied growth forecasts from different institutions [1] - Grand View Research reports that the BCI market size grew from $1.2 billion in 2019 to nearly $2 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 13%, and is expected to reach $7.63 billion by 2029 with a CAGR of 25.2% from 2024 to 2029 [1] Market Overview - The domestic BCI industry in China has advanced from a "follower" to a "co-runner and partial leader" position globally, with the market size increasing from approximately 1 billion RMB in 2020 to about 1.73 billion RMB in 2023, capturing 12.5% of the global market [3][5] - The CAGR for China's BCI market is reported at 20%, significantly higher than the global average of 14% [3] Drivers of Growth - Policy support includes the inclusion of brain science in China's 14th Five-Year Plan and local subsidies reaching up to 30 million RMB, alongside the development of national standards for BCI expected by 2025 [5] - Capital investment in the domestic BCI sector exceeded 6.5 billion RMB from 2021 to 2023, accounting for 28% of global financing, with notable single-round financing records [5] - Technological advancements include breakthroughs in electrode channel counts by Chinese universities and significant reductions in power consumption and costs for non-invasive BCI technologies [6] Application and Market Segmentation - Medical rehabilitation remains the largest segment, accounting for approximately 65% of the current market, with the average price of domestic "brain-controlled robotic arms" decreasing from 1.2 million RMB in 2019 to 450,000 RMB in 2023 [6] - Consumer applications in education, entertainment, and industrial safety are emerging, with the consumer segment's market share increasing to 18% in 2023 and expected to exceed 30% by 2026 [6] Future Projections - The Chinese BCI market is projected to reach approximately 5 billion RMB by 2026 and aim for 20 billion RMB by 2030, potentially capturing 25% of the global market [7] - China is expected to not only expand its market but also to set standards and solutions, positioning itself as a "second pole" in the global BCI industry [7] Investment Opportunities - The BCI sector's complexity suggests that investing in ETFs could be a strategic approach to capture the full spectrum of opportunities across the value chain, including software algorithms and medical technology [8] - The software segment, which translates neural signals into machine language, is critical for BCI commercialization, with 15% of the CSI Software Service Index now associated with BCI [8] - The medical technology segment is highlighted as the most immediate commercial application for BCI, with significant representation in the CSI Medical Device Index, which includes leading companies in the field [11]