Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-12 08:55Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant surge on January 12, with over 4,100 stocks closing in the green and a record trading volume of 3.64 trillion yuan, surpassing the previous high on October 8, 2024. The adjustment of export tax rebate policies for batteries has influenced market dynamics, leading to a notable increase in trading activity for the Battery 50 ETF (159796), which closed down 0.69% despite a trading volume nearing 600 million yuan [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Battery 50 ETF (159796) saw most of its constituent stocks decline, with notable drops including Sunshine Power and Xian Dao Intelligent, both down over 3%, while Ningde Times and Guoxuan High-Tech fell over 2% [3]. - The trading volume of the Battery 50 ETF (159796) surged to nearly 600 million yuan, indicating heightened investor interest despite the ETF's decline [1][3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - On January 9, two departments announced adjustments to export tax rebate policies, effective from April 1, 2026, which will reduce the VAT export rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6%, and eliminate it entirely by January 1, 2027 [4][5]. - The previous reduction in export tax rebates for certain photovoltaic and battery products from 13% to 9% in November 2024 had already triggered a rush in exports, and the latest adjustments may lead to a similar surge, benefiting the lithium carbonate sector [5]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Global demand for energy storage is expected to grow steadily, with projections indicating that global energy storage installations will reach 404 GWh by 2026, representing a 38% year-on-year increase [5]. - The battery sector is experiencing a sustained upward trend, driven by the growth of the global electric vehicle market, with domestic battery installations expected to maintain high growth rates through 2026 [5][6]. - Solid-state battery technology is advancing, with potential for significant industry upgrades, as companies that can provide stable supply and mature processes are likely to benefit [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The Battery 50 ETF (159796) is positioned to benefit from its high content in energy storage (18.7%) and solid-state batteries (45%), making it a strong candidate for investors looking to capitalize on these growing segments [7][9]. - The ETF's focus on battery chemicals, which account for 31% of its weight, positions it well to benefit from the recovery of upstream material prices, enhancing the overall industry outlook [9][12].